7 MONTHS INTO THE WAR PUTIN TAKES DRAMATIC STEPS TO ADDRESS A PROBLEM GROUP THERAPISTS PROCLAIMED DID NOT EXIST
21 September 2022
"Kill ratios" is idiocy for children who play too many video games and the willfully self-deluded. The all-important superiority in mass isn't attained with "kill ratios" but with force generation.
The new decree:
- Russia to mobilize 300,000 ex-servicemen and specialists.
- The mobilized will have the status of contract soldiers (meaning they are deployable to Ukraine).
- Contract soldiers and the newly mobilized are retained for active service indefinitely — until partial mobilization is rescinded or they are otherwise dismissed — regardless of how much time they had left on their contract (stop loss).
OSTENSIBLY, THE 250,000 CONSCRIPTS SERVING THEIR MANDATORY NATIONAL SERVICE WILL NOT BE SENT TO "THE AREA OF SMO", BUT YESTERDAY'S ANNOUNCEMENT OF REFERENDUMS IN LUGANSK, DONETSK, ZAPOROZHYE, AND KHERSON ON JOINING RUSSIA OPENS THE PATH FOR PRECISELY THAT. WHEN THESE AREAS ARE PROCLAIMED RUSSIAN SOIL CONSCRIPTS CAN BE DEPLOYED THERE WITHOUT THE PROCEDURAL NEED TO DECLARE A STATE OF WAR.
What does this mean?
I EXPLAINED BEFORE THAT ALMOST THE ENTIRE WEIGHT OF RUSSIA'S WAR RESTED ON JUST 250,000 MEN — THE OFFICERS AND CONTRACT SOLDIERS OF THE VARIOUS LAND COMBAT ARMS. THE MOBILIZATION WILL MASSIVELY INCREASE THE NUMBER OF THESE SHOULDERS TO SOME 500,000 (I'M ASSUMING SOME OF THE 300K WILL GO TO THE AIR FORCE, BORDER GUARDS…).
MOREOVER, THE POTENTIAL DEPLOYMENT OF SERVING CONSCRIPTS AFTER THE REFERENDA (AND AFTER THE FALL DRAFT IS COMPLETE) COULD RAISE THAT NUMBER BY ANOTHER 150-200K TO NEARLY 700,000.
IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL MONTHS FOR THE MOBILIZATION TO START FEELING ITSELF ON THE BATTLEFIELD IN FULL, BUT THIS IS A "GAME-CHANGER". THE RUSSIAN HALF-WAR HAD EXHAUSTED ITSELF, HAD BOGGED DOWN, HAD LOST INITIATIVE — AND WORST OF ALL, WAS STARTING TO DEVOUR THE RUSSIAN GROUND ARMY.
THE MOBILIZATION OF 300K DEPLOYABLE TROOPS FIXES THE ENORMOUS GLARING HOLE IN THE RUSSIAN WAR WHICH WAS THE EXTREME PAUCITY OF MANPOWER.
It means that the Kremlin saw exactly what all of us who are not 5D clowns had seen — that the war in the parameters of an "SMO" had spent itself and was starting to be beat, and decided to address the problem with an escalation.
Of course, if you're going to do something 7 months into a war it means that you should have done it right from the start.
Instead, Ukraine was given 7 valuable months in which to generate additional forces while Russia wasted time. — And worse, was consuming its military power in battles that were more difficult than they needed to be if the kontraktniki had proper conscript and mobiki (the trendy name for "the mobilized" in Russian these days) support.